Precious metals have emerged as some of the strongest-performing assets in 2025, propelled by geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of looser monetary policy and fragile global economic conditions. Gold surged to record highs, recently reaching $4,481 (€3,797) per troy ounce — a rise of roughly 55–70% year-on-year, marking one of the most powerful annual rallies in decades. Silver, long considered the “lesser” metal, outpaced gold with annual gains of 130–140%, hitting record levels near $69 (€58) per ounce by late 2025.
Once seen as a historical safe haven displaced by modern financial instruments like currency, bonds and real estate, precious metals staged a remarkable comeback in a year defined by tariff skirmishes, central banks reducing reliance on the US dollar, and persistent political tensions. This week alone, gold rose as much as 2.4% and silver jumped 3.4% as tensions flared between the US and Venezuela following US Navy attempts to seize a third oil tanker linked to the country.
While gold prices do not directly depend on Venezuela, the standoff signals broader risks to markets. Political and security crises of this scale alert investors to overlapping hazards, including energy supply disruptions, sanctions escalation, and rising great-power friction. Gold and silver attract investors because they are not dominated by any single government, do not depend on corporate earnings, carry no default risk and remain difficult to sanction or freeze.
January–March: Early Year Tariff Fears Spur Safe-Haven Demand
Gold started the year elevated, reflecting uncertainty over inflation, interest rates and spillover effects from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By March, it surged above $3,000 (€2,544) per ounce for the first time in 2025 as fears mounted over expanded US tariffs under President Donald Trump, particularly on steel and aluminium, with potential for broader trade measures. Markets interpreted the move as a sign of a widening trade war and rising inflation risk, prompting investors to flock to gold. Silver’s response remained more muted during this period.
April–June: Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Push Prices Higher
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, announced on 2 April, propelled spot gold toward record highs above $3,100 (€2,628) per troy ounce as traders reacted to fears of escalating trade conflicts. Gold continued its upward trajectory through spring and early summer, climbing to $3,354 (€2,842) amid intensifying geopolitical stress, particularly renewed tensions between Iran and Israel. In late June, US Air Force and Navy strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities further reinforced the metal’s safe-haven appeal.
July–September: Fed Disputes and Full Tariff Rollout Sustain Rally
Gold’s mid-year rally strengthened amid a public standoff between Trump and Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell over interest rates. Trump repeatedly criticised Powell for maintaining high rates and pressed for cuts Powell refused, fueling speculation about potential Fed leadership changes. Spot gold climbed above $3,400 (€2,883) per ounce over the summer, bolstered by both monetary policy uncertainty and ongoing trade policy concerns. On 11 July, Trump unveiled a comprehensive tariff package, largely implemented on 1 August, reinforcing the trend of central banks increasing gold holdings as part of long-term reserve diversification. Silver also surged, reaching $38.46 per ounce in mid-July.
October–November: Gold Tops $4,000 Amid Trade, Policy, and Shutdown Fears
Gold surpassed $4,000 (€3,392) in early October, fueled by safe-haven demand as markets balanced expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts with persistent geopolitical uncertainty. By 13 October, gold exceeded $4,133 (€3,504) amid US–China trade tensions. Brief optimism around trade talks in late October temporarily pulled prices below $4,000, but the overall uptrend held. Investors also monitored a potential US government shutdown and continued criticism of Fed policy from the Trump administration. By late November, gold was poised for its fourth consecutive monthly gain, trading around $4,210 (€3,567), while silver reached a record near $56.78 (€48.12) per ounce.
December: Historic Records and Venezuela Tensions Drive Year-End Surge
The final weeks of December proved the most dramatic. Gold topped $4,490 per troy ounce and silver neared $70 as investors sought refuge amid reports of US military actions and attempts to seize Venezuela-linked oil tankers. Markets also factored in expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, which could lower real yields and support bullion prices further, compounded by a weakening US dollar.
