Geoeconomic Conflict Takes Center Stage
Rising economic clashes between major powers—through sanctions, tariffs, and other measures—are now seen as the biggest threat to global stability, according to the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026. The report, released just before the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, draws on insights from over 1,300 leaders across business, government, academia, and civil society.
The findings rank geoeconomic confrontation above other major risks such as misinformation, societal polarization, extreme weather, and armed conflict. Half of those surveyed expect the world to experience turbulent conditions over the next two years, a sharp increase from 36% in last year’s report. Over the next decade, the majority predict ongoing global instability.
Economic and Geopolitical Pressures
Geoeconomic confrontation topped the near-term risk list, with 18% of experts citing it as the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. It also ranked first in severity over the next two years, climbing eight positions from last year. Prolonged rivalries and conflicts threaten supply chains, economic stability, and the global cooperation needed to respond to shocks.
The report highlights the impact of US trade policies, including tariffs that have disrupted international commerce and strained budgets worldwide. Economic risks, such as potential downturns, inflation, mounting debt, and asset bubbles, have surged in the two-year outlook, signaling possible market volatility. Meanwhile, 68% of respondents anticipate a multipolar or fragmented world order over the next decade.
Technology, Society, and Environmental Challenges
Beyond economics, misinformation and disinformation rank second in short-term risks, with cyber insecurity also high on the list. Concerns over artificial intelligence showed the steepest rise in the long-term outlook, moving from 30th to fifth place over the next decade, reflecting worries about AI’s impact on jobs, security, and societies. Societal polarization and inequality also remain major threats, with inequality seen as the most interconnected risk for the second consecutive year.
Environmental issues, while lower in the two-year outlook, dominate the long-term view. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth systems are expected to pose the most severe risks over the next decade, with three-quarters of respondents anticipating a turbulent environmental future.
Saadia Zahidi, WEF Managing Director, stressed the importance of global cooperation: “The challenges highlighted in this report—from geopolitical shocks to rapid technological change, climate instability, societal strife, and economic risks—underscore both the scale of potential perils and our shared responsibility to shape what comes next.”
